Options At #10, LW Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson

This will likely be the last of my Options at #10 posts, and since this seems to be a player that a lot of people are hoping will slip to the Oil at #10, I figured that it'd only be fitting to close them out with Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson. My key concern with Paajarvi-Svensson is the question about his finishing ability. He has the size and speed to be an NHL player and a number of people believe that he could be a dominant top 6 forward. However when I hear pro size and speed with questionable finishing ability, I have flash backs to 1999.

And no I'm not a drug smoking hippie, it just seems like de ja vu with Jani Rita and th '99 draft. Scott Glennie and Zack Kassian have the hands to put the puck in the net, and Ryan Ellis has the ability to do so from the blueline as well. Our core players are playmakers, and unless Paajarvi is an elite playmaker, perhaps we should look elsewhere unless he truly is the BPA. Anyhow, I've decided to dig up the pre draft stats of every player that played in the SEL in their draft season that was drafted in the 1st round. Here's how it breaks down.....

Lw Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
6-1 201lbs. 4/12/91
Timra IK (SEL) 50gp. 7-10-17 4pim.

First Round Draftees from the past 10 years, stats from their draft season in the SEL.

'98
None

'99
Lw Daniel Sedin 50gp. 21-21-42 20pim. 642 NHL games
C Henrik Sedin 50gp. 19-26-45 28pim. 646 NHL games

'00
D Lars Jonsson 5gp. 0-0-0 4pim. 8 NHL games
D Niklas Kronwall 37gp. 1-4-5 16pim. 260 NHL games

'01
Rw Fredrik Sjostrom 31gp. 2-3-5 6pim. 358 NHL games
Lw Jens Karlsson 19gp. 2-0-2 4pim. 0 NHL games

'02
C Alexander Steen 26gp. 0-3-3 14pim. 314 NHL games
Rw Jonas Johansson 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 1 NHL game

'03
Lw Robert Nilsson 41gp. 8-13-21 10pim. 192 NHL games

'04
None

'05
C Anze Kopitar 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 236 NHL games
following season 47gp. 8-12-20 28pim.

C Niklas Berfors 25gp. 1-0-1 2pim. 9 NHL games

'06
C Niklas Backstrom 46gp. 10-16-26 30pim. 164 NHL games

'07
None

'08
Lw Mattias Tedenby 23gp. 3-3-6 6pim. 0 NHL games

Every other Swedish prospect drafted in the 1st round played in Swedish Juniors in their draft season.

C Henrik Sedin 50gp. 19-26-45 28pim. 646 NHL games
Lw Daniel Sedin 50gp. 21-21-42 20pim. 642 NHL games
C Niklas Backstrom 46gp. 10-16-26 30pim. 164 NHL games
Lw Robert Nilsson 41gp. 8-13-21 10pim. 192 NHL games
Lw Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson 50gp. 7-10-17 4pim.
Lw Mattias Tedenby 23gp. 3-3-6 6pim. 0 NHL games
Rw Fredrik Sjostrom 31gp. 2-3-5 6pim. 358 NHL games
D Niklas Kronwall 37gp. 1-4-5 16pim. 260 NHL games
C Alexander Steen 26gp. 0-3-3 14pim. 314 NHL games
Lw Jens Karlsson 19gp. 2-0-2 4pim. 0 NHL games
C Niklas Berfors 25gp. 1-0-1 2pim. 9 NHL games
D Lars Jonsson 5gp. 0-0-0 4pim. 8 NHL games
C Anze Kopitar 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 236 NHL games
Rw Jonas Johansson 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 1 NHL game

Paajarvi-Svensson ranks 5th of these 13 players in terms of points in their draft season and also 5th in goals. The good thing is that in the last 5 years only 1 player had better stats than he had this past season, and that was a pretty damn good player in Niklas Backstrom. Perhaps his lack of finishing ability can be excused since the company that he keeps seems to be NHL caliber players if recent history has anything to say about it.

Of course every player is a different case and anything can happen in these kids development. However after looking at this list, I am far more comfortable drafting him than I was before it. However as much as I admire all 4 of these kids, I'm still leaning towards drafting Zack Kassian. No matter how we slice it, if we keep the 10th pick, we should be getting a high quality prospect. And if things keep shaping up the way that they are, we could also land a hell of a prospect in the 2nd round.

Options At #10, D Ryan Ellis

D Ryan Ellis
5-10 173lbs. 1/3/91
Windsor (OHL) 57gp. 22-67-89 +52 57pim.

11-34-45 PP
9-33-42 ES
2-0-2 SH
led his team in ppg with 1.56
2nd in the league in +/- with a +52
1st in league with 67 assists
3rd in league in PP assists with 34
led all league defensemen is goals, assists, and points

Pretty incredible accomplishments, add to that he kept up with his ppg in the playoffs with 1.55, going for 8-23-31 and a +16 with 5 PP Goals.

Here are some of my concerns other than of course the obvious size and skating questions posed by scouts.....

The Windsor Spitfires had no less than 8 players with 1 point per game or better, and although Ellis led the charge, it's no doubt that such a strong offensive team would benefit an offensive defenseman like Ellis.

Their teams worst +/- was -1 (two players tied with that rating), 2 others were even. +54, +52, +52, +46, +39, +29, +28, +27, +27, +27, +24, +22. That's a list of Spitfires players +/-'s, if that doesn't signify a dominant team, I don't know what does.

No less than 5 defensemen averaged 1ppg or better this season in the OHL, and another 8 (with at least 30gp.) averaged at least 0.75ppg. That's a lot of high scoring rearguards although few were of the same league as Ellis. While there were only 2 players in the same ball park offensively on defense as Ellis, one was actually a rookie. Here's how the top 3 offensive defensemen in the OHL stacked up......

Ryan Ellis 57gp. 22-67-89 1.56ppg +52 57pim. 7 other players on team with 1+ppg

P.K. Subban 56gp. 14-62-76 1.36ppg +47 94pim. 4 other players on team with 1+ppg

John Carlsson 59gp. 16-60-76 1.29ppg +23 65pim. 5 other players on team with 1+ppg

Granted Subban is older, it shows just how much support Ellis had on his Spitfires team. Ellis had one HELL of a season, that much is for certain, however all of these things must be accounted for before we decide to use our 2nd highest draft pick in the last decade to draft a guy with his diminutive stature with skating concerns to boot.

Ellis apparently drove the bus for Windsor offensively, and his being a defenseman and playing more minutes than forwards helped the cause, especially when you have 5 forwards that are at 1+ ppg and a lot of secondary scoring in front of you. Of course as a defenseman you have to make the right reads and move the puck effectively to put up points, but it really helps when you have forwards that know what they are doing offensively.

If it is the Oilers scouts belief that he can become more fleet of foot, I would be perfectly fine selecting him at 10. However as is often the case in the draft, beyond the top 2 or 3 players there are always concerns about how a player will improve on their glaring and potentially damning weaknesses.

Here's a taste of what this skilled blueliner can do

Options At #10, C/RW Scott Glennie

This post will examine just how much Glennie relied on consensus top 5 pick Brayden Schenn for his offense and vice versa. Glennie is said to have very good speed and a very good shot as well. Unlike Zack Kassian, he doesn't bring the physical side of the game, but is seen to be a purer "skill guy" if you will. Glennie actually led the Brandon Wheat Kings in PPG with a 1.27 clip, juuussst eeking out a win over fellow linemate and soon to be draftee Brayden Schenn by a hundredth of a point per game.

C/RW Scott Glennie
6-1 182lbs. 2/22/91
Brandon (WHL) 55gp. 28-42-70 +22 25pim.

Playoffs
12gp. 3-15-18 +10 11pim.
ES 3-11-14
PP 0-4-4
SH 0-0-0

2 ESG
1 ESENG
8 ES1A
3 ES2A
0 PPG
1 PP1A
3 PP2A
0 SHG
0 SH1A
0 SH2A

Schenn Factored Into The Same Point, % Of Glennie's Total Stats
1 ESG 50%
1 ESENG 100%
4 ES1A 50%
3 ES2A 100%
0 PPG N/A
1 PP1A 100%
1 PP2A 33%
0 SHG N/A
0 SH1A N/A
0 SH2A N/A

2 Schenn goals directly off of a Glennie primary assist
3 Glennie goals directly off of a Schenn primary assist

Regular Season
55gp. 28-42-70 +22 25pim.
ES 17-29-46
PP 9-11-20
SH 2-0-2

15 ESG
2 ESENG
22 ES1A
7 ES2A
9 PPG
7 PP1A
4 PP2A
2 SHG
2 SH1A
0 SH2A

Schenn Factored Into The Same Point, % Of Glennie's Total Stats
8 ESG 53%
0 ESENG 0%
15 ES1A 68%
4 ES2A 57%
5 PPG 56%
4 PP1A 57%
4 PP2A 100%
1 SHG 50%
1 SH1A 50%
0 SH2A N/A

11 Schenn goals directly off of a Glennie primary assist
10 Glennie goals directly off of a Schenn primary assist

Overall Schenn figured into 50% of his goals and was directly responsible for 36% of them. Schenn figured into 67% of his assists and was directly responsible for 23% of them. Schenn was involved in 59% of his ES points, 65% of his PP points, and 50% of his SH points and overall 60% of his total points.

Needless to say Schenn played a big part in Glennie's season, however Glennie factored heavily in Schenn's production as well despite playing 15 less games. Glennie was directly responsible for 34% of his goals (a measly 2% less than the reverse) and 48% of his total offense. Subtract his stats while Glennie was hurt and Glennie accounted for 65% of his total points for a nearly 5% increase over Glennie's dependence on Schenn for offense. Draw your own conclusions.

Options At #10, RW Zack Kassian

As long as I have the time to do so, I'd like to look closely at a few different prospects that we could decide to draft at #10. The first is a player that I am intrigued with due to his mix of size, strength, skill, and aggressive nature, Zack Kassian. Let's take a closer look at this prospect.....

RW Zack Kassian
6'3" 205lbs. 1/24/91
Peterborough (OHL) 61gp. 24-39-63 -14 136pim.

Power Play 28 points
13 PPG
8 PP1A
7 PP2A

Even Strength 33 points
9 ESG
1 ESENG
17 ES1A
6 ES2A

Short Handed 2 points
1 SHG
1 SH1A

Penalties Summary

9 Lazy/Speed Related Penalties
2 Interference
1 hooking
3 tripping
2 holding
1 holding the stick

10 Boys Will Be Boys Penalties
3 unsportsmanlikes
2 game misconducts
3 10 minute misconducts
1 diving
1 Illegal stick

5 "Normal" Hockey Penalties
3 high sticking
2 goaltender interference

26 Physical Penalties
5 roughing
12 fighting
1 instigator
2 boarding
1 charging
2 crosschecking
1 elbowing
2 checking to the head

So you can see what makes him an attractive prospect and to a lesser extent what makes him a bit of a wild card. Make no mistake about it, his physical game is a big part of what has him rated so high, however he does have hands as his 1+ PPG average clearly shows. It's a rare feat to be a teams 2nd leading point getter, 2nd leading pts/game guy, 3rd leading goal scorer, and 2nd highest PP goal guy, and lead his team in pim's and pim/game.

Zack Kassian is more than just a goon, he is a solid combination of toughness, skill, and a take no prisoners mentality. His skating at this point is the main concern, however his skating is hardly horrible for a bigger guy, and he is still young enough to work on that part of his game so that he becomes a non liability in that area. He displays soft hands around the net, and at the very least he translates to a solid 3rd line player that hits like a truck and kicks some tail when need be. At best he's probably a 2nd line power forward that compliments our skilled smurfs up front.

Here are some video's of Kassian in action (He wears the #9 Jersey).....

Tribute
Poor Video Quality From His '07-08 Season
Not Bad For A No Skill Slug
Draft Profile
Good Anticipation And Hands
Vs. DeSousa
Vs. Tangradi Sticking Up For Teammate
Vs. Fletcher
Vs. Devane Helluva Fight
Vs. Clifford This Is One Tough Kid!
Vs. Clifford The Sequel
Vs. Tanski Answering The Bell After A Huge Open Ice Hit
Vs. Mifflen
Vs. DeHart