Showing posts with label Preseason Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Preseason Analysis. Show all posts

Monday, September 29, 2008

What Does it Take to Crack the Forward Line-up?

Last season Andrew Cogliano was a blur. Coming out of college the then 20 year old flew out of the gates with 7 points in 5 preseason games.

Sam Gagner had a superb training camp but only had 2 points in 5 preseason games.

Robert Nilsson had a solid preseason with 3 points in 4 games.

Marc Pouliot had 1 point in 5 games

JF Jacques was pointless in 4 games as was Patrick Thoresen

Rob Schremp had only 1 point in 3 games

Slava Trukhno was a PPG player in 3 games


The players that broke camp with the Oilers (of the above players) were Cogliano, Nilsson, Gagner, and Pouliot.


What does this tell us? It tells us that the staff was really high on Gagner and that they wanted to give him a look despite an inferior preseason to Cogliano and Nilsson. It also tells us that a number of contenders didn't take the ball and run with it. Pouliot, Jacques, Thoresen, and a recovering Schremp fit that bill.


That's what it took last year to make the club. An incredible camp by Cogliano, Nilsson showed the ability to create offensively, and Gagner showed promise. Pouliot? Well, he just showed up.


So what will it take this year? So far we have (please forgive me as I go off of my memory since edmontonoilers.com's preseason stats aren't currently working)...

Tyler Spurgeon 2gp. 1-0-1

Liam Reddox 2gp. 1-0-1

Rob Schremp 2gp. 0-1-1 1/2SO

Marc Pouliot 2gp. 0-0-0 1/1SO

Gilbert Brule 2gp. 0-0-0 0/1SO

Slava Trukhno 2gp. 0-0-0

Ryan Potulny 1gp. 0-0-0


Potulny doesn't seem to be in the coach's plans much like Schremp and Trukhno appeared that way last year.

Spurgeon is capitalizing on his opportunities like '07-08 Trukhno did, but again good luck at making the squad.

Schremp appears to be following the Robert Nilsson model from last year, putting up some numbers but not blowing the doors off while also concentrating on improving their overall games.

Pouliot? Well, he's Pouliot. I'm sure as far as he's concerned he'd like the regular season to start in spring, because that's usually when he takes his game up to the level where it belongs.

Reddox maybe in the Thoresen mold, a solid, feisty, and semi-skilled player that could play a bottom 6 role on a weaker team but might get beaten out by a guy like Pouliot.

Brule maybe following the Thoresen mold as well. Fast, feisty, good shot, but limited results. IMO to make the team he has to show that he can produce offensively. It has been said that at a past Columbus preseason, Brule was superb, however that quickly ended once the games started counting for real. It's up to him to show that he doesn't need time in the AHL to become the player that he was projected to be at the draft.

Trukhno seems to be following the '07-08 Schremp model, 21 year old with skill, but poor skating and minimal results.


There's still time to see who can up their game and join the "Nilsson category", there are no "Cogliano's" here, but there are a few players that could help the team despite not setting the preseason ablaze.


In the end, the guys that get the most games in are the guys that the coach is still deliberating on and probably the odds on favorites to break camp. Cogliano, Gagner, and Pouliot all had 5 games to show their stuff. Nilsson seemed like the surest bet of the bunch not named Pouliot prior to the preseason and he played in 4.

Judging by this past model, expect some cuts after tomorrow's game and for a player or players to cement their spot(s), and soon.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Time to Let it All Hang Out

There are a select few left fighting for a spot or 2. This is what I'd like to see come Tuesday's game. Players fighting for a spot are in blue

Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky (get the top line some minutes)
Schremp-Pouliot/Brule-Penner (potential 3rd scoring line)
Lefebvre-Brule/Pouliot-Stortini (fight for the 13th/14th forward line)
Moreau-Brodziak-Pisani (checking line)

Peckham-Chorney (get top call-ups more NHL experience)
Smid-Visnovski (get more time in the preseason)
Souray-Staios (get ready for their shutdown role)

JDD (Another chance to show that he can get it done)
Roli (If JDD falters, then he can cement his spot with showing up the youngster)

4 Games in and the Big Picture Up Front is Still a Blur

So much for guys taking the ball and running with it.

At the moment there is still a dog fight for the 12th, 13th, and potentially 14th forward spots.
I believe that Marc Pouliot will get one of them strictly because of his waiver eligibility and because he's always been a sloooooow starter. He will make the team IMO, but I'm not 100% sold that he'll start the year in the top 12.

That leaves 1 spot for sure up for grabs and maybe 2.

So who's left?

Lw/C Rob Schremp
Rw/C Gilbert Brule
Utility forward Liam Reddox
LW/C Ryan Potulny
Lw Slava Trukhno
Lw/Rw Guilliame Lefebvre (the goon)
C/W Tyler Spurgeon
C/W Tim Sestito


Out of this group I see only 4 true contenders. Schremp, Brule, Potulny, and Lefebvre. The rest are either better served to be in the AHL this year, or just not good enough.

Let's take a look at the 4 contenders:

Rob Schremp-Has created opportunities for his linemates and of the 4 is the only player to get on the score sheet with a single assist in 2 games. Schremp's speed and strength are improved as advertised, however he has not grabbed a spot by the throat like he should have. He has played a game that lack confidence and fluidity. If he doesn't take the next step and the others do and he fails to make the team, it's on him.

Gilbert Brule-Brule has shown that he can flat out fly on the ice. He also seems to love letting his shot go. He also doesn't mind taking the body. The problem that I have with Gilbert is that he has well over 100 NHL games of experience to his name. So in theory he should be ahead of some of the players because he's played at the games highest level for much of the past 2 years. However I don't see that. This is a 6th overall pick that we're talking about here. The speed and shot are NHL caliber, no questions asked. However he would make the team in a bottom 6 role. That is fine if that is all that we expect of him. Personally, I see him eventually on our 2nd line with Cogliano giving the opposition absolute fits from 2 speedy little buzz saws. For this reason, I say that he should play in the AHL for much of the year or at least until he shows that he is too good for the league. We'll see how the coaching staff feels about it soon enough.

Ryan Potulny-Unlike Schremp and Brule, Potulny has only had a singular game to his credit this preseason. I was unable to watch the game, but based on a number of differing opinions he played poor to average in that game, and sounds like he is on a level below Brule, Pouliot, and Schremp. I feel that he should get another chance unless the coaches clearly feel like he is far behind the 8 ball.

Guilliame Lefebvre-The lone goon in the group, Lefebvre (like Potulny) has only seen a singular game. However he made his mark by breaking a Florida players snozz in a fight. Lefebvre showed that he has limited hands because of flubbing a few nice chances set up by his linemates in that game, but let's be honest, he wouldn't make the team to score goals. And he certainly proved that he can throw some hellacious left hands in a fight. He could end up making the club as the 13th forward, and if he did and the Oilers carry 3 goalies all 3 of Potulny, Schremp, and Brule could start the year in the minors. That would certainly have Falcons fans in 7th heaven with their best lineup by far since the Oilers became their NHL affiliate.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Time to Seperate the Contenders From the Pretenders

4 of the teams 7 preseason games will be played in 4 consecutive nights starting Monday. It will be imperative that players looking to stake a claim on this team or as the primary call-up at their position. By the 6th and especially the 7th preseason game the lineup will be filled with the guys that will be on the big club. That gives most players that are figuring on sneaking their way onto th e club with 4-5 games max. Outside of the last cuts most players will be lucky to see more than a couple of games in the preseason.

Playing 4 games in 4 nights had to have figured into the Oilers decision to keep over 50 players with the team while there are really only 25-30 that have a legit shot at making the big club due to their play, injuries, or poor play by other players.

By the end of this week, it should be apparent who the team will consist of in terms of depth players (3rd/4th liners, bottom pairing d-men, and the back-up and back-up to the back-up goalie!)

What a week of Oilers hockey we have in store!

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

What My Pre-season Line-ups Would Look Like and My Predicted Opening Night Roster

These would be my line-ups for the pre-season...

Game #1

Nilsson-Gagner-Cogliano
Schremp-Pouliot-Brule
Goulet-Lerg-Eberle
Paukovich-O'Marra-McMorrow

Peckham-Chorney
Grebeshkov-Gibert
Wild-Bisaillon

Deslauriers
Roloson

Game #2

Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky
Trukhno-Pouliot-Eberle
Potulny-Brodziak-Brule
Reddox-Sestito-Benson

Smid-Staios
Peckham-Strudwick
Maslonka-Chorney

Dubnyk
Pitton

Game #3

Schremp-Potulny-Penner
Moreau-Brodziak-Pisani
Reddox-Sestito-Stortini
Trukhno-O'Marra-McMorrow

Souray-Visnovski
Smid-Young
Wild-Bisaillon

Garon
Deslauriers

Cuts: Maslonka, Sestito, Pitton, Lerg, Bisaillon, O'Marra

Game #4

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Nilsson-Gagner-Cogliano
Schremp-Pouliot-Eberle
Reddox-Brule-Stortini

Peckham-Staios
Grebeshkov-Gilbert
Smid-Chorney

Roloson
Dubnyk

Game #5

Moreau-Brodziak-Cole
Schremp-Pouliot-Penner
Trukhno-Brule-Potulny
Paukovich-Reddox-Benson

Wild-Chorney
Souray-Visnovski
Smid-Strudwick

JDD
Roloson

Cuts: Reddox, Trukhno, Wild, Paukovich, Benson, Eberle, Dubnyk

Game #6

Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky
Nilsson-Gagner-Cogliano
Schremp-Pouliot-Penner
Potulny-Brule-McMorrow

Peckham-Visnovski
Smid-Strudwick
Souray-Staios

Garon
JDD

Game #7

Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky
Nilsson-Gagner-Cogliano
Moreau-Brodziak-Pisani
Schremp-Pouliot-Penner

Souray-Visnovski
Grebeshkov-Gilbert
Peckham-Staios

Roloson
Deslauriers

Final cuts: Potulny, Chorney, Brule, Smid


BBO's predicted opening night roster...

Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky
Nilsson-Gagner-Cogliano
Moreau-Brodziak-Pisani
Schremp-Pouliot-Penner
Stortini, McMorrow

Souray-Visnovski
Grebeshkov-Gilbert
Peckham-Staios
Strudwick

Garon
JDD (when Roli gets moved, if he doesn't, then McMorrow is in Springfield)
Roloson


Potulny gets sent down because Schremp, Brule, and Eberle make him expendable and it would allow us to carry a legit heavyweight on the team.

Peckham proves to be too good to pass up and Smid gets some needed time to hone his game at the AHL level.

Deslauriers shows enough for the Oilers to actively look to deal Roloson.


Thanks to theoil from HF boards for bringing to my attention that there was a minimum # of veterans that teams have to dress.

Edited on 9/17/08