Sunday, January 10, 2010

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 2, The Case For Tyler Seguin

This time around I will take a look at Tyler Seguin in the battle for the 2010 1st overall draft selection.

Tyler Seguin

1) The kid came out of nowhere, he hasn't been at the top of the mountain as long as Hall has.

2) He didn't even make the WJC team, and the team wasn't good enough to win Gold.

3) He is by far his teams biggest offensive threat, how many prime minutes is he playing?

4) His post season performance last year wasn't as impressive as Halls.

5) Is he a guy that is a winner playing on a bad team or a non winner with a lot of skill?

My Take:
1) Here is a list of prominent CHL forwards that have played the year prior to the draft and the year of their draft in the CHL. I have omitted Crosby from the list as he is a generational talent. Tavares actually regressed in his draft year, while Thornton, Spezza, J. Staal, Ryan, Duchene, and to a lesser extent E. Staal all had huge jumps in terms of points in their draft years with Ryan and J. Staal really ramping up their points from way less than impressive levels to respectable levels in their draft year. IMO there is little benefit in having had a longer track record of being a prolific point produces as long as a player obviously has the skill. Also these kids are teenagers and not all of them mature at the same time, it should not be held against them.

'95-96 66 30-46-76
'96-97 59 41-81-122

'96-97 64 42-60-102
'97-98 58 44-71-115

'99-00 52 24-37-61
'00-01 56 43-73-116

'00-01 58 31-35-66
'01-02 54 32-40-72 2nd in team scoring

E. Staal
'01-02 56 23-39-62
'02-03 66 39-59-98

'03-04 65 22-17-39
'04-05 62 37-52-89 2nd in team scoring

J. Staal
'04-05 66 9-19-28
'05-06 68 28-40-68 4th in team scoring

'06-07 63 42-50-92
'07-08 61 58-47-105

'07-08 59 40-78-118
'08-09 56 58-46-104

'07-08 64 30-20-50
'08-09 57 31-48-79 3rd in team scoring

'08-09 63 38-52-90
'09-10 37 29-37-67

'08-09 61 21-46-67
'09-10 39 29-38-67

2) Again, hard to blame the kid too much Canada had all of one player that will be draft eligible in 2010 there and that was Hall. Canada decided to go for experience instead of skill in this instance. IMO it was a bad call, but that isn't for me to debate here.

3) This could very well be an issue, however Thornton (12 points), Spezza (1 less point than the team leader in 14 less games after his trade to Windsor), Stamkos (12 points between 2nd and 34 between 3rd), and E. Staal (14 points) all had sizable leads on their teammates in scoring. However with the exception of Spezza who was a 2ppg player in his 15 games with Mississauga while no one else on the team finished the season with even 1ppg, this would be the largest difference in points since, well..... Crosby. 168 points for Crosby in his draft year compared to 116 for Dany Roussin, a 52 point difference.

As it stands, if Seguin played all 68 games he'd score 116 points at his current clip and his 2nd place finisher would have 87 for a difference of 29 points. Neither will play a full schedule as both have already missed games and his 2nd place challenger has already missed 10 more games than he has. Crosby, Spezza, and Seguin in terms of offensive dominance compared to their teammates in the last 10 years of top 2 picks that have played in the CHL.

4) He was tied for the team lead in points, led his team in assists, and was one of only 4 players to have been in double digit scoring in Plymouth's 11 playoff games in '08-09. All of the other 3 in double digit scoring started the year as 19 or 20 year olds.

5) This is the biggest question that cannot be answered at this point. Obviously his supporting cast isn't exactly great like Hall's is, it will be very interesting to see if he can continue his one man gang show in the post season. If he does, he could very well become the consensus 1st overall pick this summer.

While Taylor Hall might very well be the "safer" pick, Seguin is an intriguing package or size, skill, and a guy that has burst onto the scene in a hurry. Add to this that he is a center and he could very well be the top selection in the upcoming draft. Personally I think that it is foolhardy to pick one over the other as an absolute decision at this point. Both players have so much to offer their potential future NHL homes. I just hope that the Oilers will look to do whatever they can to get the right to select one of these two players and that they will be watching one hell of a pile of Plymouth and Windsor games from here on out as the consensus top 3 players in the draft are in the same league playing for two teams.

Getting either player would be a sizable step towards ensuring competitive hockey in the future for the lowly Oilers franchise. Right now it's a great position to be in as a perspective bottom 2 team in the league with potentailly 3 players worthy of the 1st overall pick, let's hope that we stay there.

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