Did We See Seguin At His Best In Round 2?

Many Oilers fans are pointing to Tyler Seguin's pointless 4 game series loss against Windsor as the moment that he proved that he was the clear cut #2 in this draft. So why did he get shut down? Too much pressure? Was Windsor just that good? Is Seguin just not that good? Well let me ask you this. What if I told you that he only had 12 points (6-6-12) in his last 10 regular season games? What if I told you that he only had 8 points (3-5-8) in his last 8 regular season games and that he was pointless in 4 of his last 8 regular season games? 42-52-94 through 53 games and only 12 points in his last 10 games and 8 in his last 8 games?

Now I know this is going to piss a lot of people off, but it sure seems like to me that the kid was either burned out from playing too much (it happens (see Parise, Zach) among others when he was younger). Or he was hurt, or both. This is why it's important to watch players a number of games over different points of a season. IMO the Seguin that we saw in the Windsor series was not the one that was ripping up the league a month or two earlier. Plymouth and Windsor are a huge rivalry and Seguin put up points against them in the regular season, so unless you are to believe that once the playoffs hit Seguin turned into Joe Thornton or the Spitfires turned into the Detroit Red Wings of a few seasons ago, something was going on.

While Seguin admitted on The Pipeline Show that he had a groin injury he made it a point to not use it as an excuse for his play. Maybe, just maybe the kid is a stand up guy that doesn't believe in making excuses? Maybe people should cut him a little slack and realize that this might be the guy that the Oilers pick come June before 1/2 the internet Oilers boards start looking for the highest roof to jump off of. All of this is speculation on my part, however maybe people should take other things into consideration other than Hall >>>>> Seguin.

Hall Vs. Seguin, What It All Boils Down To

What do you want the face of the Oilers to be? Tenacious hockey or high hockey IQ hockey? At this point it is beyond center vs. winger, it's about who is stronger in terms of character and who fits the Oilers glove the best when it comes to being what our club wants to be about.

Contrary to what some may say, they are both highly skilled and are very close despite Hall's Spitfires mopping the ice with Seguin and the Whalers. Hall seems like a guy that has a lot of physical gifts while Seguin seems like a guy that thinks the game at a higher level and IMO just seems like a smarter person.

Hockey isn't about who has the highest off ice IQ or else Horcoff would be as good as some claim him to be. That said when you have a combination or skill, physical talent, and high hockey IQ, you have a potential winner. Hall has shown that he knows how to lead a winner (at least at the CHL level), but we won't know how he could be as a leader on a team like the Oilers unless we draft him.

If you want the Oilers to be a gritty team that's led by guts and glory, Taylor Hall is your guy. If you want the Oilers to be known as a smart team with an exceptionally smart franchise player, you want Seguin. The Oilers had both in Messier and Gretzky, and while neither projects to be as good as two of the greatest players of all time, it's an example of grit and smarts on the ice combined with exceptional talent.

It is close ladies and gentlemen, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It's all about what you want as a key intangible to build the team around. Eberle and Gagner would be two examples of our scouts favoring hockey IQ, will it happen again? Or will this be the time to add a star that is willing to bleed to win? We all know that for the most part our team is as soft as a down filled pillow and as hockey dumb as a sack of hammers so we are lacking horribly in both areas.

Just like today's lottery, it's the equivalent of a flip of a coin, it can go either way. The beauty of it is that IMO there is no wrong answer when it comes to who the Oilers should pick.

So is Hall Really a Guy That Turns It Up In the Playoffs?

Much has been made of how Taylor Hall is considered a playoff performer. Just how much has he upped his game compared to his high profile teammates?

Ryan Ellis
Playoffs 2.0PPG
Regular Season 1.27PPG
Differential From Regular Season +0.73PPG

'08-09 Playoffs 1.55PPG
'08-09 Regular Season 1.56PPG
Differential From Regular Season -0.01PPG

2 Years Total = +0.72PPG

Taylor Hall
Playoffs 2.0PPG
Regular Season 1.86PPG
Differential From Regular Season +0.14PPG

'08-09 Playoffs 1.8PPG
'08-09 Regular Season 1.43PPG
Differential From Regular Season +0.37PPG

2 Years Total = +0.51PPG

Dale Mitchell
Playoffs 1.25PPG
Regular Season 1.34PPG
Differential From Regular Season -0.09PPG

'08-09 Playoffs 1.45PPG
'08-09 Regular Season 1.03PPG
Differential From Regular Season +0.42PPG

2 Years Total = +0.33PPG

Adam Henrique
Playoffs 1.25PPG
Regular Season 1.43PPG
Differential From Regular Season -0.18PPG

'08-09 Playoffs 0.85PPG
'08-09 Regular Season 1.12PPG
Differential From Regular Season -0.27PPG

2 Years Total = -0.45PPG

Greg Nemisz
Playoffs 0.75 PPG
Regular Season 1.37PPG
Differential From Regular Season -0.62PPG

'08-09 Playoffs 1.0PPG
'08-09 Regular Season 1.18PPG
Differential From Regular Season -0.18PPG

2 Years Total = -0.80PPG


Out of Windsor's top scorers that have played there the last 2 years in the regular and postseason, Taylor Hall has the second highest improvement rate in points in the postseason only behind Ryan Ellis who is also having a huge postseason for the Spitfires this year.

By the looks of it, Hall is stepping up his game at the time that his team needs him the most. The competition is getting tougher and some of his teammates aren't getting the job done this postseason (Flames 1st round pick Greg Nemisz anyone?)

Top NHL Draft Picks And Their Last OHL Playoff Series Stats

Well needless to say Tyler Seguin did not help his draft cause at all against Windsor. Zero points and a very poor minus rating to boot. How did other high ranking forward prospects fare in their last OHL series leading up to the draft?

Taylor Hall ?

Tyler Seguin 4gp. 0-0-0 -6

John Tavares 5gp. 4-3-7 -3

Matt Duchene 5gp. 1-2-3 -4

Steven Stamkos 4gp. 2-0-2 -5

Patrick Kane 5gp. 1-6-7 -4

Bobby Ryan 4gp. 1-1-2 -1

Jordan Staal 4gp. 2-0-2 Ev

Nathan Horton 6gp. 5-3-8 -3

Eric Staal 7gp. 9-5-14 +5

Rick Nash 6gp. 4-5-9 -6

Jason Spezza 4gp. 2-1-3 -2
19 y/o season 6gp. 2-2-4 -5

Stephen Weiss 5gp. 1-1-2 Ev

David Legwand 4gp. 1-0-1 -2

Hall And Seguin's Production Against Their Playoff Opponents Regular and Post Season

I figured that I'd take a look at each players totals against the teams that they are playing as well as the teams that their draft rival is playing. Here's what I came up with.

Taylor Hall
Post Season Vs. Eerie
3gp. 4-4-8 +5 4pim.
(ES 3-3-6 2-1st, 1-2nd assists)
(PP 1-1-2 0-1st, 1-2nd assists)
(SH 0-0-0 0-1st, 0-2nd assists)

Regular Season Vs. Eerie
3gp. 0-2-2 Ev 2pim.
(ES 0-1-1 0-1st, 1-2nd assists)
(PP 0-1-1 1-1st, 0-2nd assists)
(SH 0-0-0 0-1st, 0-2nd assists)

Regular Season Vs. SSM
6gp. 4-6-10 +5 13pim.
(ES 2-3-5 2-1st, 1-2nd assists)
(PP 2-3-5 1-1st, 2-2nd assists)
(SH 0-0-0 0-1st, 0-2nd assists)

Tyler Seguin
Post Season Vs. SSM
3gp. 3-2-5 -1 4pim.
(ES 1-1-2 1(1EN)-1st, 0-2nd assists)
(PP 2-1-3 0-1st, 1-2nd assists)
(SH 0-0-0 0-1st, 0-2nd assists)

Regular Season Vs. SSM
5gp. 3-2-5 -1 2pim.
(ES 2-2-4 1-1st, 1-2nd assists)
(PP 1-0-1 0-1st, 0-2nd assists)
(SH 0-0-0 0-1st, 0-2nd assists)

Regular Season Vs. Eerie
4gp. 1-12-13 -1 0pim.
(ES 1-5-6 3-1st, 2-2nd assists)
(PP 0-7-7 4-1st, 3-2nd assists)
(SH 0-0-0 0-1st, 0-2nd assists)

Hall did considerable damage against SSM in the regular season, but didn't do much against Eerie. He's making up for that by destroying Eerie in the postseason.

Seguin on the other hand has increased his output against SSM in the postseason but not to the point that Hall dominated them in the regular season. On the flip side of the coin, Seguin is probably a four letter word in the minds of Eerie fans, players, and coaches as he was insanely productive against them in the regular season. That said Hall is a 4 letter word and is definitely getting the attention of the Otter faithful with his performance thus far.

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 7, Complete Regular Season Stats

At the end of the 2009-10 OHL Regular Season

Hall 57gp. 40-66-106 +46 56pim. 2GWG
ESG 22
ES 1st assists 24
ES 2nd assists 10
ES Points 56

PPG 14
PP 1st assists 18
PP 2nd assists 14
PP Points 46

SHG 4
SH 2nd assists 1
SH Points 5

1st stars 11
2nd stars 4
3rd stars 4
Total 3 star selections 19
EN 3

Seguin 63gp. 48-58-106 +17 54pim. 7GWG
ESG 35
ES 1st assists 20
ES 2nd assists 8
ES Points 63

PPG 13
PP 1st assists 19
PP 2nd assists 11
PP Points 43

1st stars 15
2nd stars 2
3rd stars 1
Total 3 star selections 18
EN 1

Multi Point Games

Hall (27)
10-2 points games
7-3 point games
6-4 point games Blowout games 5-2, 5-2, 8-4, 5-1, 7-3
4-5 point games Blowout games 11-3, 7-1, 6-3

Seguin (27)
9-2 point games
9-3 point games
7-4 point games Blowout games 7-2, 6-1, 5-1, 6-2
2-5 point games Blowout games 9-2, 6-3

Multi Goal Games

Hall (11)
9-2 goal games
2-3 goal games

Seguin (11)
6-2 goal games
5-3 goal games

54 of Hall's 100 points came in 12 games 8 of which were blowouts or at least not very close games.

Hall had at least 1 point in 48 of his 57 games.

Seguin had at least 1 point in 46 of his 63 games.

Let's look at ES points among the top draftees/projected draftees in the last 5 OHL seasons.

Kane 58gp. 36-30-66
Seguin 63gp. 35-28-63
Hall 57gp. 22-34-56
Stamkos 61gp. 30-21-51
Tavares 56gp. 31-15-46
Ryan 63gp. 18-26-44
Duchene 57gp. 15-25-40

Now Top ES Goal scorers of all ages in the last 5 OHL seasons, draft eligible in blue

Patrick Kane 58gp. 36ES draft eligible
Bryan Cameron 62gp. 35ES 20/21 year old season
Tyler Seguin 63gp. 35ES draft eligible
Taylor Hall 63gp. 35ES 2 seasons before draft eligible
Luca Caputi 66gp. 35ES 19/20 year old season
John Tavares 67gp. 32ES year before draft eligible
John Tavares 56gp. 31ES draft eligible
Bryan Cameron 52gp. 30ES 20/21 year old season
Steven Stamkos 61gp. 30ES draft eligible
Brett Maclean 61gp. 29ES 19/20 year old season

Hall and Seguin are 2 of only 3 players in that time to have averaged that close to 1ppg at ES, the other being Patrick kane who was over 1 ES point/game. Seguin also had more ES goals than anyone not named Patrick Kane in terms of players in their draft years. The bottom line is that both of these players are the goods. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 6 Update Time!

I decided to update this just prior to the end of the OHL season.

At the end of 3/6/10

Hall 55gp. 38-62-100 +44
ESG 21
ES 1st assists 23
ES 2nd assists 9
ES Points 53

PPG 13
PP 1st assists 18
PP 2nd assists 12
PP Points 43

SHG 4
SH 2nd assists 1
SH Points 5

1st stars 10
2nd stars 3
3rd stars 4
Total 3 star selections 17
EN 3

Seguin 60gp. 47-58-105 +17
ESG 35
ES 1st assists 20
ES 2nd assists 8
ES Points 63

PPG 12
PP 1st assists 19
PP 2nd assists 11
PP Points 42

1st stars 15
2nd stars 2
3rd stars 1
Total 3 star selections 18
EN 1

Multi Point Games

Hall (25)
10-2 points games
5-3 point games
6-4 point games Blowout games 5-2, 5-2, 8-4, 5-1, 7-3
4-5 point games Blowout games 11-3, 7-1, 6-3

Seguin (27)
9-2 point games
9-3 point games
7-4 point games Blowout games 7-2, 6-1, 5-1, 6-2
2-5 point games Blowout games 9-2, 6-3

Multi Goal Games

Hall (11)
9-2 goal games
2-3 goal games

Seguin (11)
6-2 goal games
5-3 goal games

54 of Hall's 100 points came in 12 games 8 of which were blowouts or at least not very close games.

Hall had at least 1 point in 46 of his 55 games.

Seguin had at least 1 point in 45 of his 60 games.


Looking at this I can't help but think of how many points Hall has gotten because he has better teammates than Seguin. Seguin is a better passer and has better vision yet he has less assists. Seguin has also proven to be the better offensive player at ES. Seguin has 3 more hat tricks and 5 more 1st star selections. IMO offensively Seguin is clearly the better player, however Hall's grittiness, toughness, and never say die attitude makes this an interesting competition. Not to mention I have seen a number of Halls goals coming from the right side of the net for tap ins or onetimers, that won't be there in the NHL the majority of the time.

I'd still take Seguin at this point, however their true test will come in the postseason. Hall SHOULD outshine Seguin if they match up because of his stronger team. If it's even close, between the 2 it's advantage Seguin.

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 5, How Do They Do Against The Best OHL Teams?

Who does more against good competition and who does more against poor competition?

Hall and Seguin Vs. OHL Teams in order of Winning %
Barrie .849 w%
Hall 1 point in 1 game Seguin 3 points in 2 games

Windsor .822 w%
Seguin 7 points in 4 games

Mississauga .761 w%
Hall 1 point in 1 game Seguin 0 points in 0 games

London .727 w%
Hall 4 points in 3 games Seguin 4 points in 2 games

Kitchener .682 w%
Hall 1 point in 1 game Seguin 3 points in 3 games

Eerie .557 w%
Hall 2 points in 3 games Seguin 13 points in 4 games

Saginaw .557 w%
Hall 6 points in 2 games Seguin 6 points in 3 games

Plymouth .554 w%
Hall 7 points in 4 games

Ottawa .554 w%
Hall 2 points in 2 games Seguin 2 points in 2 games

Sault St. Marie .543 w%
Hall 4 points in 3 games Seguin 2 points in 3 games

Peterborough .533 w%
Hall 2 points in 2 games Seguin 0 points in 1 game

Kingston .489 w%
Hall 7 points in 2 games Seguin 1 point in 2 games

Owen Sound .489 w%
Hall 7 points in 3 games Seguin 3 points in 2 games

Oshawa .478 w%
Hall 3 points in 2 games Seguin 5 points in 2 games

Sudbury .478 w%
Hall 2 points in 1 game Seguin 9 points in 2 games

Brampton .443 w%
Hall 0 points in 1 game Seguin 0 in 1 game

Guelph .430 w%
Hall 9 points in 2 games Seguin 2 points in 1 game

Belleville .380 w%
Hall 2 points in 2 games Seguin 4 points in 2 games

Niagra .367 w%
Hall 0 points in 0 games Seguin 1 point in 2 games

Sarnia .337 w%
Hall 8 points in 4 games Seguin 3 points in 3 games


Against .500 and better teams as of 1/17/10:
Seguin 40 points in 24 games
Hall 30 points in 22 games

Against below .500 teams as of 1/17/10:
Hall 39 points in 17 games
Seguin 28 points in 17 games

GA
103 Mississauga
Hall 1 point in 1 game Seguin 0 points in 0 games

114 Barrie
Hall 1 point in 1 game Seguin 3 points in 2 games

125 Brampton
Hall 0 points in 1 game Seguin 0 in 1 game

128 Windsor
Seguin 7 points in 4 games

133 London
Hall 4 points in 3 games Seguin 4 points in 2 games

137 Plymouth
Hall 7 points in 4 games

140 Kitchener
Hall 1 point in 1 game Seguin 3 points in 3 games

149 Sault St. Marie
Hall 4 points in 3 games Seguin 2 points in 3 games

152 Ottawa
Hall 2 points in 2 games Seguin 2 points in 2 games

163 Saginaw
Hall 6 points in 2 games Seguin 6 points in 3 games

168 Belleville
Hall 2 points in 2 games Seguin 4 points in 2 games

171 Sudbury
Hall 2 points in 1 game Seguin 9 points in 2 games

171 Niagra
Hall 0 points in 0 games Seguin 1 point in 2 games

173 Kingston
Hall 7 points in 2 games Seguin 1 point in 2 games

174 Eerie
Hall 2 points in 3 games Seguin 13 points in 4 games

177 Guelph
Hall 9 points in 2 games Seguin 2 points in 1 game

179 Peterborough
Hall 2 points in 2 games Seguin 0 points in 1 game

180 Oshawa
Hall 3 points in 2 games Seguin 5 points in 2 games

186 Owen Sound
Hall 7 points in 3 games Seguin 3 points in 2 games

190 Sarnia
Hall 8 points in 4 games Seguin 3 points in 3 games


Against the teams with the 10 best GA in the league

Hall 26 points in 17 games
Seguin 27 points in 20 games

Against the teams with the 10 worse GA in the league

Hall 43 points in 22 games
Seguin 41 points in 21 games

Once again things look VERY close! Seguin does more against .500+ teams while Hall does a shade better against the teams with the best 10 GA in the league, perhaps this is because he has more help surrounding him?

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 4, More Stats

Going through Tyler Seguin's stats, I found something very interesting. In '08-09 he started his OHL career with no goals in his first 15 games. He finished with 21 goals in his last 46 games. Throw out his first 15 OHL games and he has 50 goals in his last 87 games. In those same first 15 games he had 8 points, since then he had 59 points in his last 46 games of '08-09. Clearly once Seguin got settled into the OHL he has gone on a tear. If you throw out his first 15 games and take his remaining 46 games and prorate them to the same 61 games that he played, suddenly he would've had 78 points as a rookie. Still 12 points shy of Hall's '08-09 season in 2 less games, but much closer.

Suddenly their '08-09 seasons would look much closer.....

Hall 63 38-52-90
Seguin 61 28-50-78

Current assists break down, 3 star selections, and EN goal totals at the end of play on 1/16/10

Hall
ES 1st assists 17
ES 2nd assists 6
PP 1st assists 11
PP 2nd assists 6
SH 2nd assists 1
1st stars 8
2nd stars 1
3rd stars 2
Total 3 star selections 11
EN 2

Seguin
ES 1st assists 14
ES 2nd assists 4
PP 1st assists 11
PP 2nd assists 10
1st stars 10
2nd stars 2
3rd stars 1
Total 3 star selections 13
EN 0

Hall has more ES primary assists while Seguin has a higher primary to secondary assists ratio than Hall while on the PP it's the other way around. Both look to be able to create offensively at ES. Hall has 2 EN goals while Seguin has none, it could be that Seguin isn't out protecting leads like Hall is late in games, or maybe he just hasn't had an EN opportunity to score yet. I also find it interesting that Seguin has more 1st star selections and more total 3 star selections as well.

Multi Point Games

Hall (18)
7-2 points games
4-3 point games
4-4 point games
3-5 point games

Seguin (19)
7-2 point games
7-3 point games
3-4 point games
2-5 point games

Multi Goal Games

Hall (8)
6-2 goal games
2-3 goal games

Seguin (6)
2-2 goal games
4-3 goal games

31 of Hall's 69 points came in 7 games!
Hall has at least 1 point in 31 of his 39 games.

Seguin has had a point in 30 of his 41 games.

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 3, A Closer Look

Taylor Hall 38 29-39-68 +24 23pim.
Tyler Seguin 39 29-38-67 +5 44pim.

Windsor PP 26.2% 65PPG in 248 opportunities in 44 games
Plymouth PP 22.9% 50PPG in 218 opportunities in 44 games

Hall 13PPG
Seguin 9PPG

Seguin 21PPA
Hall 16PPA

Windsor's top PPG scorers
Hall 13
Nemisz 12
Henrique 9

Windsor's top PPA scorers
Fowler 25
Hall 16
Ellis 13

Plymouth's top PPG scorers
Jordan 9
Seguin 9
McCauley 6

Plymouth's top PPA scorers
Seguin 21
Jenks 16
Scmitz 9

Seguin figures into a whopping 60% of his teams power play goals.
Hall figures into 45% of his teams power play goals.

GWG
Seguin 3
Hall 1

Insurance Goals
Seguin 3
Hall 2

SHG
Hall 4
Seguin 0

SHA
Hall 1
Seguin 0

ESG
Seguin 20
Hall 12

ESA
Hall 22
Seguin 17

ES Scoring
Seguin 20-17-37
Hall 12-22-34

Plymouth, Seguin's output in ()
55 special teams (9g) = 16.4% of teams goals
151 total goals (29g) = 19.2% of teams goals
96 ES goals (20g) = 20.8% of teams goals
55 special teams (30p) = 54.5% of teams goals
151 total goals (67p) =44.4% of teams goals
96 ES goals (37p) = 38.5% of teams goals

Windsor, Hall's output in ()
74 special teams goals (17g) = 23% of teams goals
221 total goals (29g) = 13.1% of teams goals
147 ES goals (12g) = 8.2% of teams goals
74 special teams goals (34p) = 46% of teams goals
221 total goals (68p) = 30.8% of teams goals
147 ES goals (34p) = 23.1% of teams goals

As far as I'm concerned, unless Seguin plays considerably more minutes he seems like the superior player. Hall seems to make a living off of special teams and he doesn't have very many big goals with just a single GWG on a team with 34 wins already. It could be an anomaly, but Seguin on the other hand has 3 with Plymouth winning ten less games.

20 ES goals also cannot be overlooked, that is a very solid feat and Seguin has scored over 1/5th of his teams ES goals. The next highest ES goalscorer for Plymouth has 11 ES goals. Meanwhile Hall is 5th on his team in ES goals. In terms of shear numbers IMO Tyler Seguin is the top rated forward in this years draft at the moment. Hall plays on a team with a +94 goal differential while Seguin plays on a team with a +18 goal differential. Hall on a team of allstars, Seguin on a team without that luxury. The more I look into it the more that I think that Seguin is our guy if we get to pick between him and Hall. Either way it's better than what we have, but it makes for a very interesting debate.

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 2, The Case For Tyler Seguin

This time around I will take a look at Tyler Seguin in the battle for the 2010 1st overall draft selection.

Tyler Seguin

Knocks:
1) The kid came out of nowhere, he hasn't been at the top of the mountain as long as Hall has.

2) He didn't even make the WJC team, and the team wasn't good enough to win Gold.

3) He is by far his teams biggest offensive threat, how many prime minutes is he playing?

4) His post season performance last year wasn't as impressive as Halls.

5) Is he a guy that is a winner playing on a bad team or a non winner with a lot of skill?

My Take:
1) Here is a list of prominent CHL forwards that have played the year prior to the draft and the year of their draft in the CHL. I have omitted Crosby from the list as he is a generational talent. Tavares actually regressed in his draft year, while Thornton, Spezza, J. Staal, Ryan, Duchene, and to a lesser extent E. Staal all had huge jumps in terms of points in their draft years with Ryan and J. Staal really ramping up their points from way less than impressive levels to respectable levels in their draft year. IMO there is little benefit in having had a longer track record of being a prolific point produces as long as a player obviously has the skill. Also these kids are teenagers and not all of them mature at the same time, it should not be held against them.

Thornton
'95-96 66 30-46-76
'96-97 59 41-81-122

Lecavalier
'96-97 64 42-60-102
'97-98 58 44-71-115

Spezza
'99-00 52 24-37-61
'00-01 56 43-73-116

Nash
'00-01 58 31-35-66
'01-02 54 32-40-72 2nd in team scoring

E. Staal
'01-02 56 23-39-62
'02-03 66 39-59-98

Ryan
'03-04 65 22-17-39
'04-05 62 37-52-89 2nd in team scoring

J. Staal
'04-05 66 9-19-28
'05-06 68 28-40-68 4th in team scoring

Stamkos
'06-07 63 42-50-92
'07-08 61 58-47-105

Tavares
'07-08 59 40-78-118
'08-09 56 58-46-104

Duchene
'07-08 64 30-20-50
'08-09 57 31-48-79 3rd in team scoring

Hall
'08-09 63 38-52-90
'09-10 37 29-37-67

Seguin
'08-09 61 21-46-67
'09-10 39 29-38-67

2) Again, hard to blame the kid too much Canada had all of one player that will be draft eligible in 2010 there and that was Hall. Canada decided to go for experience instead of skill in this instance. IMO it was a bad call, but that isn't for me to debate here.

3) This could very well be an issue, however Thornton (12 points), Spezza (1 less point than the team leader in 14 less games after his trade to Windsor), Stamkos (12 points between 2nd and 34 between 3rd), and E. Staal (14 points) all had sizable leads on their teammates in scoring. However with the exception of Spezza who was a 2ppg player in his 15 games with Mississauga while no one else on the team finished the season with even 1ppg, this would be the largest difference in points since, well..... Crosby. 168 points for Crosby in his draft year compared to 116 for Dany Roussin, a 52 point difference.

As it stands, if Seguin played all 68 games he'd score 116 points at his current clip and his 2nd place finisher would have 87 for a difference of 29 points. Neither will play a full schedule as both have already missed games and his 2nd place challenger has already missed 10 more games than he has. Crosby, Spezza, and Seguin in terms of offensive dominance compared to their teammates in the last 10 years of top 2 picks that have played in the CHL.

4) He was tied for the team lead in points, led his team in assists, and was one of only 4 players to have been in double digit scoring in Plymouth's 11 playoff games in '08-09. All of the other 3 in double digit scoring started the year as 19 or 20 year olds.

5) This is the biggest question that cannot be answered at this point. Obviously his supporting cast isn't exactly great like Hall's is, it will be very interesting to see if he can continue his one man gang show in the post season. If he does, he could very well become the consensus 1st overall pick this summer.

While Taylor Hall might very well be the "safer" pick, Seguin is an intriguing package or size, skill, and a guy that has burst onto the scene in a hurry. Add to this that he is a center and he could very well be the top selection in the upcoming draft. Personally I think that it is foolhardy to pick one over the other as an absolute decision at this point. Both players have so much to offer their potential future NHL homes. I just hope that the Oilers will look to do whatever they can to get the right to select one of these two players and that they will be watching one hell of a pile of Plymouth and Windsor games from here on out as the consensus top 3 players in the draft are in the same league playing for two teams.

Getting either player would be a sizable step towards ensuring competitive hockey in the future for the lowly Oilers franchise. Right now it's a great position to be in as a perspective bottom 2 team in the league with potentailly 3 players worthy of the 1st overall pick, let's hope that we stay there.

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 1, The Case For Taylor Hall

This is part 1 of my arguments for both players. I have yet to see anything but highlights from Seguin and I have only seen Hall in the WJC's this year. Let's break it down shall we?

Taylor Hall

Knocks:
1) Plays on a tremendous team and is barely out pointing Seguin who IS his teams offense.

2) Gets bounced around and takes physical abuse with his style of play.

3) Didn't carry Canada on his back to Gold at the WJC's.

4) Seemed to hog the puck at times at the WJC's.

5) Isn't a center, the most important forward position in hockey.

My Take:
1) The kid was 3rd on his team in scoring when he started his OHL rookie season as a FIFTEEN year old and finished only behind the 9th overall pick the next draft and a 20 year old. He also led his club with 45 goals that season. He then followed that up by leading his team in points and goals in his 2nd season and led the team in goals and points in the postseason on his way to winning the Memorial Cup and the MVP as a 16/17 year old.

2) He showed that he can take some serious punishment but still bounce up and keep playing his style of game. That is dogged determination, shows bravery, and shows the willingness to pay the price to be a great player. Not to mention it shows durability.

3) This was a fairly weak team that clearly missed Hodgson and needed better goaltending, better play from its 2nd year players, and another high skilled player in the top 6 to get Kadri the hell away from the PP unit and Hall's line.

4) Great players want the puck on their stick, no one else on his line had their games going so maybe he took it upon himself a tad bit too much. It's a learning experience for him and quite frankly outside of Patrick O'Sullivan the Oilers don't have a guy that wants the puck and has a blood thirst to score by any means necessary and unlike O'Sullivan, CAN score with regularity.

5) Hall is listed as a natural center and he could probably play center at the next level. However considering that many of our best players and prospects are seen as playmakers, we need a true finisher and a guy that can battle along the boards. Elite is elite period, and if we get an elite winger to compliment our current lot of centers that is fine, Hall will make any team that he joins better and he seems like a safer bet because of his past track record, his tradition as a winner and a guy that comes to play when the chips are down and is willing to do anything to win.

Taylor Hall has shown consistency to be a top player for 3 seasons now and despite criticism was still one of Canada's top performers at the WJC's. A leader on the ice, Hall exhibits good speed, a snipers shot, the ability and durability to play a physical game, playmaking ability when he chooses to utilize it, and above all else he has superstar potential.

Hall IMO is the safest pick this year and he suffers from having been in the spotlight for so long, everyone is looking to shoot holes in his game much like they did Tavares last season. The difference is that Hall has more speed and as a result should have a smoother transition to the NHL than Tavares has of late after a torrid start to the season. Lastly, he would be the biggest Alberta born player to lace 'em up for the Oilers since a guy that some compare him to left, The Moose, Mark Messier.