Thursday, January 14, 2010

Hall Vs. Seguin Part 3, A Closer Look


Taylor Hall 38 29-39-68 +24 23pim.
Tyler Seguin 39 29-38-67 +5 44pim.

Windsor PP 26.2% 65PPG in 248 opportunities in 44 games
Plymouth PP 22.9% 50PPG in 218 opportunities in 44 games

Hall 13PPG
Seguin 9PPG

Seguin 21PPA
Hall 16PPA

Windsor's top PPG scorers
Hall 13
Nemisz 12
Henrique 9

Windsor's top PPA scorers
Fowler 25
Hall 16
Ellis 13

Plymouth's top PPG scorers
Jordan 9
Seguin 9
McCauley 6

Plymouth's top PPA scorers
Seguin 21
Jenks 16
Scmitz 9

Seguin figures into a whopping 60% of his teams power play goals.
Hall figures into 45% of his teams power play goals.

GWG
Seguin 3
Hall 1

Insurance Goals
Seguin 3
Hall 2

SHG
Hall 4
Seguin 0

SHA
Hall 1
Seguin 0

ESG
Seguin 20
Hall 12

ESA
Hall 22
Seguin 17

ES Scoring
Seguin 20-17-37
Hall 12-22-34

Plymouth, Seguin's output in ()
55 special teams (9g) = 16.4% of teams goals
151 total goals (29g) = 19.2% of teams goals
96 ES goals (20g) = 20.8% of teams goals
55 special teams (30p) = 54.5% of teams goals
151 total goals (67p) =44.4% of teams goals
96 ES goals (37p) = 38.5% of teams goals

Windsor, Hall's output in ()
74 special teams goals (17g) = 23% of teams goals
221 total goals (29g) = 13.1% of teams goals
147 ES goals (12g) = 8.2% of teams goals
74 special teams goals (34p) = 46% of teams goals
221 total goals (68p) = 30.8% of teams goals
147 ES goals (34p) = 23.1% of teams goals

As far as I'm concerned, unless Seguin plays considerably more minutes he seems like the superior player. Hall seems to make a living off of special teams and he doesn't have very many big goals with just a single GWG on a team with 34 wins already. It could be an anomaly, but Seguin on the other hand has 3 with Plymouth winning ten less games.

20 ES goals also cannot be overlooked, that is a very solid feat and Seguin has scored over 1/5th of his teams ES goals. The next highest ES goalscorer for Plymouth has 11 ES goals. Meanwhile Hall is 5th on his team in ES goals. In terms of shear numbers IMO Tyler Seguin is the top rated forward in this years draft at the moment. Hall plays on a team with a +94 goal differential while Seguin plays on a team with a +18 goal differential. Hall on a team of allstars, Seguin on a team without that luxury. The more I look into it the more that I think that Seguin is our guy if we get to pick between him and Hall. Either way it's better than what we have, but it makes for a very interesting debate.

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