Monday, November 10, 2008

Statistics Be Damned, Old School Scouting Helps, Use Your Eyes Before Your Calculator

I have been ripped repeatedly for proclaiming that Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers would be a solid NHL goaltender and that Rob Schremp will be an offensive impact player when he makes it to the NHL The same argument comes out "the stats don't back your claims" "Deslauriers was an average AHL goalie" "Schremp hasn't done enough at a young age to be considered an impact prospect". Guess what guys and gals, stats are a nice thing to have, but they don't tell the whole story. Just because Zack Stortini had an unreal GA/60 last year doesn't mean that he's a potential Selke candidate. Just because Visnovsky has some points doesn't mean that he isn't playing poorly. Sometimes watching the games is what needs to be done.

It's the same way that I took an early liking to Theo Peckham, Sebastien Bisaillon, Chris Vande Velde, etc. It isn't the end-all be-all, but it certainly helps to put what the players are/aren't accomplishing in context. Someone even tried to start a discussion earlier this year stating that Grebeshkov has been our best defenseman. Anyone that doesn't dive into their opinions stats first would scoff at the assertion that anyone other than Souray was our best defenseman this season and by a fair margin.

Of course everything is hit and miss, but it's nice to see someone tearing a hole in typical statistical analysis and showing the masses that sometimes people are greater than their environment but are being held back by things that can't be seen in the boxscores.


hunter1909 said...

What a lot of people these days seem to forget, is that hockey isn't baseball. Hockey is so dependent on emotion it's not even funny. Also, in hockey all you need to do to make a poor team good, or a good team great, is to add 1 superstar player.

DeLauriers looked like Ken Dryden out there. Now Oilers can waive Roloson, because they have their new replacement goalie. Period. Certainly for this season.

I haven't seen much of Peckham, but even the look in his eye tells me we've got a really good killer player coming up the road in future. Peckham is also one of the most violent areas of London, UK. lol

I don't understand what they're doing to Schremp. He's an outstanding prospect, and let's hope he can overcome this incompetance.

Stortini's fight last night was hilarious. This dude should be in face Off II

Bryanbryoil said...

I agree, stats are nice, but there are soooo many intangibles that make this game completely different than any other. Deslauriers obviously won't keep this kind of play up and rewrite the record books, but I felt from early last season that he could be a solid backup and he could be an average NHL starter.

The bottom line is that as long as he's managed properly he'll do fine. One problem with him is that every 8-10 games he gets shelled early. However as long as the coach realizes this and doesn't over work him we'll be fine.

JDD and Garon play the same style and their style takes a crapload of energy. Garon is the perfect mentor for JDD IMO. There really is no need for Roli to be around and that dates back to prior to this season started. If MacT would've given him a start or 2 earlier last year perhaps we wouldn't have had to deal with this current mess.

As for Peckham, the guy is a killer, he has it in his eyes as you've said. But he is far from a skill-less goon like many others anticipated.

Schremp just needs an opportunity and a coach to believe in him to take the next step. Getting a number of games without worrying aout being exiled to the minors the first time that he makes a mistake. If he had the same opportunities as Gagner he's thrive, but will he?

Bryanbryoil said...

As for Stortini, I was going to give him major props until he started to turn his head away from Orr and put his hand in the way. At least Mac took his beating like a man, too bad that he got hurt though.

hunter1909 said...

JDD is the first goalie since 2006 Roloson who actually makes me relax whenever he has to make a save.

Peckham scared the OHL silly, is as hard as they make em, and reminds me of a seriously nasty boxer I used to watch named Nigel Benn. He strikes me as having a nice combination of uber-toughness and skill.

Right now I'd like to send poor Gagner to the AHL, and bring Schremp up for the 1st line. I'd also tell him "No matter how crappy you play, we're giving you 10 games on the first line. Then, when you fuck up, there won't ever be any reason for us to stick you back in the AHL forever and ever".

Then again, I'd have probably started him at center for game 7 of the 2006 finals. Provided he was agreeable to the opportunity.

What a lot of people don't understand at all is, a lot of these talents NEED to be thrown in at the deep end. Bringing talent up slowly as a matter of general principle is stupid.

Come to think of it, doing ANYTHING the same way without consideration to individuality in players is frankly, strictly for the minor leagues(as in 9 year olds).