Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Options At #10, LW Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson


This will likely be the last of my Options at #10 posts, and since this seems to be a player that a lot of people are hoping will slip to the Oil at #10, I figured that it'd only be fitting to close them out with Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson. My key concern with Paajarvi-Svensson is the question about his finishing ability. He has the size and speed to be an NHL player and a number of people believe that he could be a dominant top 6 forward. However when I hear pro size and speed with questionable finishing ability, I have flash backs to 1999.

And no I'm not a drug smoking hippie, it just seems like de ja vu with Jani Rita and th '99 draft. Scott Glennie and Zack Kassian have the hands to put the puck in the net, and Ryan Ellis has the ability to do so from the blueline as well. Our core players are playmakers, and unless Paajarvi is an elite playmaker, perhaps we should look elsewhere unless he truly is the BPA. Anyhow, I've decided to dig up the pre draft stats of every player that played in the SEL in their draft season that was drafted in the 1st round. Here's how it breaks down.....

Lw Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
6-1 201lbs. 4/12/91
Timra IK (SEL) 50gp. 7-10-17 4pim.


First Round Draftees from the past 10 years, stats from their draft season in the SEL.

'98
None

'99
Lw Daniel Sedin 50gp. 21-21-42 20pim. 642 NHL games
C Henrik Sedin 50gp. 19-26-45 28pim. 646 NHL games

'00
D Lars Jonsson 5gp. 0-0-0 4pim. 8 NHL games
D Niklas Kronwall 37gp. 1-4-5 16pim. 260 NHL games

'01
Rw Fredrik Sjostrom 31gp. 2-3-5 6pim. 358 NHL games
Lw Jens Karlsson 19gp. 2-0-2 4pim. 0 NHL games

'02
C Alexander Steen 26gp. 0-3-3 14pim. 314 NHL games
Rw Jonas Johansson 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 1 NHL game

'03
Lw Robert Nilsson 41gp. 8-13-21 10pim. 192 NHL games

'04
None

'05
C Anze Kopitar 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 236 NHL games
following season 47gp. 8-12-20 28pim.

C Niklas Berfors 25gp. 1-0-1 2pim. 9 NHL games

'06
C Niklas Backstrom 46gp. 10-16-26 30pim. 164 NHL games

'07
None

'08
Lw Mattias Tedenby 23gp. 3-3-6 6pim. 0 NHL games


Every other Swedish prospect drafted in the 1st round played in Swedish Juniors in their draft season.

C Henrik Sedin 50gp. 19-26-45 28pim. 646 NHL games
Lw Daniel Sedin 50gp. 21-21-42 20pim. 642 NHL games
C Niklas Backstrom 46gp. 10-16-26 30pim. 164 NHL games
Lw Robert Nilsson 41gp. 8-13-21 10pim. 192 NHL games
Lw Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson 50gp. 7-10-17 4pim.
Lw Mattias Tedenby 23gp. 3-3-6 6pim. 0 NHL games
Rw Fredrik Sjostrom 31gp. 2-3-5 6pim. 358 NHL games
D Niklas Kronwall 37gp. 1-4-5 16pim. 260 NHL games
C Alexander Steen 26gp. 0-3-3 14pim. 314 NHL games
Lw Jens Karlsson 19gp. 2-0-2 4pim. 0 NHL games
C Niklas Berfors 25gp. 1-0-1 2pim. 9 NHL games
D Lars Jonsson 5gp. 0-0-0 4pim. 8 NHL games
C Anze Kopitar 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 236 NHL games
Rw Jonas Johansson 5gp. 0-0-0 0pim. 1 NHL game


Paajarvi-Svensson ranks 5th of these 13 players in terms of points in their draft season and also 5th in goals. The good thing is that in the last 5 years only 1 player had better stats than he had this past season, and that was a pretty damn good player in Niklas Backstrom. Perhaps his lack of finishing ability can be excused since the company that he keeps seems to be NHL caliber players if recent history has anything to say about it.

Of course every player is a different case and anything can happen in these kids development. However after looking at this list, I am far more comfortable drafting him than I was before it. However as much as I admire all 4 of these kids, I'm still leaning towards drafting Zack Kassian. No matter how we slice it, if we keep the 10th pick, we should be getting a high quality prospect. And if things keep shaping up the way that they are, we could also land a hell of a prospect in the 2nd round.

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