Friday, April 2, 2010

Revisiting My Preseason Expectations Of MPS and Lander

(Below is what I wrote prior to the '09-10 season.)

Based on two highly successful recent Swedish Elite League graduates Anze Kopitar ('05-06) and Niklas Backstrom ('06-07) this is what I'd like to see from Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Anton Lander the Oilers Timra twin prospects, fraternal twins that is!

Anze Kopitar 18 year old season
47gp. 8-12-20 28pim. #6 in team scoring 5 points behind 1st

Niklas Backstrom 18 year old season
45gp. 12-28-40 46pim. #1 in team scoring by a whopping 11 points

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson 17 year old season
50gp. 7-10-17 4pim. #9 in team scoring, 26 points behind #1

Anton Lander 17 year old season
47gp. 4-6-10 12pim. #16 in team scoring, 33 points behind #1

Considering that the Timra twins play on a stronger offensive team than either Backstrom or Kopitar did, it shouldn't be unrealistic to see MPS best Kopitars mark by a fair margin, as a matter of fact it should be expected since he was just 3 points shy of that feat as a 17 year old. However Backstrom's mark is a lofty one, he was top fiddle by a fair margin so undoubtedly he got prime ice time and the teams best linemates.

Lander isn't seen to be anywhere near as dynamic as the other 3 players in this equation, but his 17 year old numbers were nothing to scoff at by any stretch of the imagination. Here is what I'd like to see from our Timra duo this season......

Magnus Paajarvi Svensson
53gp. 12-18-30

Timra's Top LW's Last Season
Fredrik Hynning 47gp. 15-21-36
Timo Parssinen 31gp. 6-18-24

If Paajarvi can take the next step and move into the top 6 his numbers could resemble Backstrom's, if he stays in the bottom 6 they maybe between Kopitar's 18 year old stats and my projections for him this season in the 25ish point range.

Anton Lander
51gp. 6-9-15

Timra's Top C's Last Season
Mika Pyorala 55gp. 21-22-43
Tom Wandell 51gp. 15-26-41
Johan Andersson 55gp. 5-12-17

Like Paajarvi-Svensson I expect Lander to get an expanded role, he doesn't seem like a very good bet to challenge for a top 6 role, but an expanded role in the bottom 6 and his maturation as a player likely means that he will improve on his impressive rookie pro season.

IMO their lines in the sand in terms of showing positive growth as players would be 25 points for MPS and 14 for Lander. Anything above those totals would be superb and it would show rapid improvement from the top two Oilers picks from the '09 draft.

(End Preseason Post)

So let's see what they did relative to my expectations of them.

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson

Preseason Expectations:
53gp. 12-18-30

Line showing positive growth:
25 points

Actual: 49gp. 12-17-29

1 less point that my expectations in 4 less games. So he covered the bet and showed great signs of improvement in my eyes. Job well done for MPS.

Anton Lander

Preseason Expectations:
51gp. 6-9-15

Line showing positive growth:
14 points

Actual: 49gp. 7-9-16

1 more point than my expectations in 2 less games. Lander also covered the bet and showed great signs of improvement in the SEL. I must say that as far as I'm concerned both of our Timra prospects had successful seasons in terms of development. Paajarvi-Svensson became Timra's 3rd leading point getter and 3rd leading goalscorer only behind 2 31 year olds in both categories.

Lander on the other hand upped his point output by 60% and nearly doubled his goal total from his 17 year old season. He also went from his teams 16th leading scorer as a 17 year old to his teams 9th leading scorer as an 18 year old. Even overlooking their WJC's, Lander and MPS had years to remember in Timra.


oilerdiehard said...

Nice work Bryan. You nailed those perfectly and your expectations going in were fair. I think some forget how young MPS still is. It will be interesting to see what he does in his 19 year old season.

I am hoping they leave both in the SEL next season. Though Lander's style of game might translate well to the AHL. But no rush either way.

Bryanbryoil said...

Thanks Dale. I wouldn't mind them staying another season to mature more. That said in the case of MPS I'd like him to decide what he wants. If he wants the NHL now, bring him over, if he's a little hesitant let him stay in Timra with Lander another season and then bring them both over in '11-12.